This is an article I recently wrote for a UK or European magazine (sadly I don't know which) called Inside Poker. I'm not really sure how I thought of the analogy but I think it's fitting. Hope you enjoy!

Game and Opponent Selection


I am frequently asked by my peers, and students as well as, what I think is the most important element of a successful poker player. Other similar questions include, "what do you think is the pitfall of most poker players?" or "what do most poker players need to work on?" While the answers to these questions may often be ambiguous, there is a single fundamental "skill" that I believe will make the biggest difference in one's success. It is something that is often not talked about enough, nor given the credit that is due, and that is game and opponent selection.

I have developed a way to emphasize this point to help those better understand the significance of the idea. Many people use as an example, and may believe, if you are the 10th best poker player in the world, one would logically assume that you would be a profitable poker player. However, if you took the hypothetical scenario that you ONLY played with the nine other best players, well then that would make you a loser! While this example may seem obvious to most and unpractical to others, I have developed an analogy that I hope will better illustrate my point. Let's imagine you are an NBA basketball team. One morning, while you are reviewing tapes from a horrific loss that you suffered the night before, you receive a phone call from the commissioner of the league.

"Hello Jim!"

Jim hung up the phone, astonished at the news he had just heard. What kind of system is that, he wondered? He couldn't help but think how lucky he was to be the team selected for this exclusive right. After a very mediocre 12 - 23 start, he could sure use whatever help he could get. He sat back in his chair and began to look at the competition.It took him a whole thirty seconds, and he decided he was going to play the Denver Nuggets for the rest of the season. He could already see the headlines. "The Washington Wizards win 50 out of 54 games against the Denver Nuggets and finish the season in contention for an NBA title.

Now, who can count the parallels this story has to game selection in poker? What we often miss, and even more frequently take for granted, is our freedom to choose whom we are going to play! This would be a dream situation for any other sport (assuming poker is a sport for purposes of this article).

Now let's imagine the alternative. Jim decides to play the best NBA team in the league for the duration of the NBA season. What would people think? What would happen to his job? What would be the most probable outcome for his NBA team and the franchise as a whole? Obviously if he came out on record saying, "well everyone, I wanted to play the Celtics because I wanted a challenge and prepare myself for the toughest opponents the league has to offer." He would be fired on the spot! Okay, so maybe it would be acceptable to play them once or twice out of the remaining 54 games to prepare for the finals, grow as a team, and learn something. So in poker, I will very seldom play someone whom I know is of equal, or slightly greater skill level, than me to keep myself sharp. I would also like to note that I would NEVER do this if it meant risking a significant part of my net worth (just like Jim would be a moron to do the same if he was one game away from clinching a playoff spot, and selected the Celtics to play that game.)

In the story above, Jim, in reality, is still limited to the given teams in the NBA. However in poker, we are free to play in any game, which may include players with the high skills (like the NBA) to a lower level game with less skilled players (like high school basketball). One can equate this freedom to moving down in stakes in poker. Surely we all want to play in the NBA, and once we have a taste of the big leagues, nobody wants to move down to college basketball. But sometimes, we have to make sacrifices and takes steps down to accomplish great things.

Another interesting point to note is that although Jim's Wizards were a huge favorite over the Nuggets, they still lost several games. Well guess what? The same is true for poker although on a different scale. The only difference is in poker, the variance is higher. So instead of winning 50 out of 54, you would expect to win fewer times than in the basketball example I used. All of the parallels are there and when we put into context, the immense edge we create by choosing those whom we play against - well that my friends can and will make all the difference.

Cheers,

~ Trah ~

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